October 10, 2026
Ukraine – Trump Breaks Energy Deadlock – Zelenski In Open Defiance
Last night, in a phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, U.S. President Donald Trump destroyed the political deadlock around an energy ceasefire in Ukraine.
Trump announced that the presidents had agreed on the export of 4.5 million tons of sanctioned diesel from Russia through April 2027. Russia confirmed the deal. The U.S. Treasury announced the lifting of the relevant sanctions.
One ton of diesel is roughly the equivalent of 8 barrels. U.S. consumption of diesel (and the similar heating oil) amounts to 3.9 million barrels per day. The maximum total Russian export under the deal amounts to about 9 days of U.S. consumption. The total global consumption is about 30 million barrels (3.75m tons) per day.
The amount of diesel in question is relatively small but it might impact the currently high diesel prices at the margins. It is unlikely to help Trump to lower diesel prices before the upcoming mid-term elections, but it is a positive sign to the voters that he is ‘doing something’ about it.
Russian diesel exports were blocked by a. U.S. sanctions and b. Ukrainian attacks (supported by U.S. intelligence) on Russian refineries and oil terminals.
Ukraine sees its attacks on Russian fuel supplies as its only strategic means to hurt its enemy.
Russia had stopped its exports of diesel as a result of Ukrainian attacks. President Trump had publicly asked Ukraine several times to stop its attacks on Russian refineries. The Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski had rejected Trump’s requests.
Trump’s current move is intended to destroy the leverage Ukraine had gained by its attacks on Russian refineries:
President Trump decided to make a diesel fuel deal with Russia after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Axios.
…
“Zelensky is misreading the room. By continuing to hit refineries, he is eroding the good will that he has built with Trump over the last six months,” the U.S. official said.
Zelenski is furious:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios in a phone interview on Friday that President Trump’s decision to unilaterally lift sanctions on Russia and allow it to export diesel was “not fair and not honest.”
“You know, it looks like a happy birthday present for Putin. It looks absolutely terrible,” Zelensky said in frustration, referring to the Russian president’s birthday earlier this week.
In a Telegram post Zelenski described Trump’s move as “weak” (in Russian):
“… Any easing of sanctions against Russia without a clear and lasting agreement on de-escalation with Russia is an obvious sign of weakness. It plays into Russia’s hands, ensuring that it will kill more, fight longer, respect America even less, and inflict even more losses and damage on the world.
…
Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world. Russia will “repay” the diesel with further terror and vile acts. Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that needs to be ended, not continued. We need real de-escalation with Russia, and in a reciprocal format,” the Ukrainian president writes.
A few hours later a Ukrainian drone strike hit the Russian oil export terminal at Rostov-on-Don:
A major fire has erupted at the NZNP petroleum-products terminal in Rostov-on-Don following a reported Ukrainian drone strike.
The facility handles the storage and export of refined petroleum products, with a stated annual capacity of 3.5 million tons.
Just hours ago, Trump announced an agreement with Putin to bring Russian diesel to American and global markets, while Washington moved to ease sanctions on Russian fuel.
Ukrainian officials had already condemned the agreement, with Zelensky calling it an investment in Russia’s war effort.
Trump is likely to be furious about this strike. It is Zelenski’s open defiance of Trump’s action that makes Trump look weak.
Ukraine’s military communication on the battle field is depending on the U.S. controlled Starlink satellite network. Its ability to strike within Russia largely depends on U.S. targeting intelligence.
If Trump wants to be seen as serious he will have to immediately stop both.
Independent of how the situation develops Trump’s temporary retreat from sanctions on Russia should not be interpreted as a change of U.S. strategy. U.S. hostility against Russia, Iran and China is a strategic measure. The current lifting of diesel sanctions is a tactical move forced by domestic circumstances. It does not change its long term plans.